Today was the most profitable day I've had in a long time … at least a year, I think … and “stay the course” doesn't make for very compelling content. But I'm going to try …

I will state that I remain very short the market, highly concentrated in commodities and energy. Yes, I took a few positions off the table to take profits, but in all sincerity, I probably should have just kept those as well. I also added a dozen new positions. All 90 – yes, 90 – of these are short positions, but I do have 3 longs –  Japanese Yen (FXY), the Euro (FXE), and gold (GLD). These currency positions are ten times as big as any of my equity positions. Here's the Yen, for instance, which seems, shall we say, primed for a bounce:

I realize that, given the past six years, a couple of days of weakness makes everyone absolutely convinced a huge rally to new lifetime highs is ahead. Whatever. I'm avoiding domestic ETFs except for day trades, but I am still enthusiastically short emerging markets, high-yield bonds, and energy. So the waterfall on the ES could produce a bounce, sure, but I'm going to be very aggressive this quarter.

As for energy, I'll say – take a good hard look at what oil did in 2008 … take note of the persistence, power, and longevity of the fall. Now take a look at the 50% dip we've had so far (which, for every percentage point along the way, people have been buying the “bottom”). How long do I think oil could go? How about single digits? Yeah, you read me right. Single digits. Give it a couple of years. I think this is just the beginning.

Now, for no particular reason, my favorite SCTV clip of all time: